Kavaljer Quality Focus
April 2025
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Active Management of Nordic Quality Companies
Kavaljer Quality Focus is an equity fund that primarily invests in Swedish quality companies, with holdings also possible in companies based in the Nordic region and the rest of Europe. Characteristics that define a quality company include increasing revenue and profit over time, stable finances, an experienced and competent management and board committed to creating shareholder value. Investing in quality companies reduces the risk of unpleasant surprises.
The fund is actively managed, and the selection of stocks is based on fundamental analysis without regard to each company's weight in the index. The focus is on finding quality companies with good growth prospects at an attractive valuation. The fund has an investment horizon of 3–5 years and contains a concentrated portfolio of 20–35 companies. The goal is to generate returns that outperform the Swedish stock market over time.
As an investor, you gain access through the fund to a unique composition of interesting large and small quality companies. The fund is available on platforms such as Avanza, Nordnet, and Savr, as well as through banks and institutions that trade via MFEX and Allfunds.
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A Rollercoaster Ride April ultimately turned out to be a relatively neutral month for the stock market. The Stockholm Stock Exchange (OMXSPI-GI) declined by only 0.3%, the small-cap index (Carnegie Small Cap Return Index) increased by 0.2%, while the Dow Jones World Index rose by 0.8%.
However, the stock market month was a real rollercoaster, and on April 9 the market was down as much as 14% for the month when fear of Trump's tariffs causing a global recession peaked. As Trump postponed the start of all tariffs over 10% (excluding China), and thereby opened up for reasonable negotiations, market sentiment improved.
In our previous letter, which was sent out when the stock market was falling several percent virtually every day, we wrote the following:
“It is easy to feel worried when the stock market falls quickly, and it is impossible to know what will happen in the short term. But we know from history that stocks rise in the long term, and some of the best buying opportunities in history have been on days when the stock market is marked by fear. Therefore, as usual, we believe that the best course of action is to ‘stay the course’. Our focus is on owning good companies that grow and create shareholder value over time.”
Our actions: analysis of the situation and calm behavior
As always, we believe that as an investor or fund, one should not attempt macro-analysis. The legendary economist John Kenneth Galbraith once said:
“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”
We fully agree with the above, with the addition that it is important to assess the potential impact of macro events on our holdings.
After Trump published his list of tariff rates for each country, we analyzed how this would affect each of our holdings. Specifically, we identified the share of sales directed to the U.S. for each company, as well as the origin of the production related to those sales. In addition, we attempted to estimate the indirect effects of tariffs, such as a general economic slowdown. Based on this, we ranked our holdings on a scale from 0 to 5, where 0 indicated negligible impact and 5 indicated catastrophic impact.
Our analysis indicated that our portfolio was generally well-positioned to withstand the effects of the tariffs. The above analysis also formed the basis for our actions. In general, we chose to stay the course. The exception was selling a few holdings whose share prices remained relatively strong despite our assessment that the companies would be negatively affected, in order to increase our positions in stocks with minimal expected impact but that had been dragged down in the broader market decline.
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Fund Performance and Contribution Kavaljer Quality Focus increased by 3.2% in April. For comparison, OMXSPI-GI was down 0.3%, the small-cap index (Carnegie Small Cap Return Index) rose 0.2%, and the Dow Jones World Index was up 0.8%. The largest positive contributors to the fund’s performance during the month were ITAB (+1.4 percentage points), New Wave (+0.9), RevolutionRace (+0.8), and Carasent (+0.7). The biggest negative contributors were Nederman (-0.5), AFRY (-0.3), and Byggmästare Ahlström (-0.2).
Changes and Holdings
During the month, the fund sold off the remaining shares in Kitron as well as the entire holding in Storytel (around SEK 100). However, following the post-earnings decline in Storytel’s share price, we bought back part of the position at prices below SEK 80. The fund also repurchased Pandora at roughly 30% below the level at which we sold it just a few months ago.
The fund also increased its holdings in Carasent, Nilörngruppen, Sdiptech, Svedbergs, Swedencare, Nederman, and Securitas.
Later in this letter, we provide an in-depth overview of our thoughts on Ratos, explain why we sold Storytel and why we repurchased Pandora, as well as review several Q1 reports that have been published so far (Carasent, Protector, Nilörn, AFRY, Alligo, FlatexDegiro, and Valmet).
The equity exposure was 99%.
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Portfolio Changes and Investment Rationale
Sold Storytel After a Strong Rally – But Reinvested After Sharp Drop Post-Q1 Report
Storytel has been a strong contributor to the returns of Quality Focus over the past six months. We initially purchased the stock during the summer of 2024 at around SEK 55. At that time, the company had essentially completed its turnaround from unprofitable growth to more selective growth with a strict focus on profitability. Meanwhile, EQT’s public fund (a major shareholder in Storytel) was being wound down, creating an interesting setup with a stock that had been depressed by forced selling. We seized the opportunity to invest.
By the end of April—just about 9 months later—the stock had nearly doubled. While we believed Storytel had further potential, there were also risks. The ever-present threat from players like Spotify is likely to periodically weigh on sentiment around the stock. While we can’t say with certainty how serious that threat is, we felt that our “margin of safety” in valuation had disappeared. Therefore, we sold our position in Storytel.
Just a few days after the sale, the company released its Q1 report, and the share price dropped by over 18%. While we acknowledge that part of this timing was down to luck, it underscores our strategy of not “hoping too much,” and instead preferring low expectations in our holdings.
The day after the report, the stock was down to SEK 79, and we chose to reinvest. The quality of the business remains intact—the price has simply swung sharply in a short time.
Reinvested in Pandora After the Share Price Crashed Without Rational Cause
In January, we sold Pandora at levels between DKK 1,350–1,400, and we wrote the following at the time:
"Pandora has been a loyal performer in Quality Focus. We first invested around DKK 600 and significantly increased our position below DKK 300, when temporary issues drove the valuation down to P/E 6–8.
The company has now confirmed its turnaround with strong growth and improved profitability, but the valuation has risen substantially to P/E 26 on a trailing 12-month basis (at a share price near DKK 1,400). Forward estimates point to ~10% annual growth and some margin expansion—optimistic, but not unreasonable. Based on 2026 estimates, the stock was trading at P/E 17, and we no longer saw a clear margin of safety—so we exited the position."
The stock subsequently plunged, partly due to Trump’s tariff announcement, but also beforehand. The company communicated a potential 15% EBIT impact from tariffs. The share is now down 33% from its peak.
We have now reinvested in Pandora, for the simple reason that the stock once again appears attractive. It is now trading at P/E 12.6 and EV/EBIT 9.6 on 2026 estimates.
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Ratos — A Fragmented but Cash-Flow-Strong Group in Transformation
Ratos is a long-held investment that we believe is misunderstood and where we now expect and hope for a turnaround in the share price.
Ratos – From Hero to Zero and on the Way Back Again
Under the leadership of Arne Karlsson (1999–2012), Ratos was transformed from a traditional investment company into a private equity-like firm with a focus on active ownership and business development. After stepping down as CEO in 2012, he remained on the board until 2016. During Karlsson’s tenure, Ratos became a true stock market darling and was regarded as one of the finest companies on the exchange.
Susanna Campbell joined Ratos in 2003 and became CEO in February 2012. She left the role in June 2016 in connection with a strategic shift. Her tenure was marked by weak portfolio performance, expensive acquisitions, and few major exits. Companies such as AH Industries, Jøtul, and Euromaint underperformed, and the stock price fell by over 30%. She was succeeded by Magnus Agervald in July 2016, who remained for only 1.5 years.
Current CEO with a Stellar Track Record from ÅF (2002–2017)
Jonas Wiström then took over as CEO after 15 years at the helm of the engineering consultancy ÅF (Ångpanneföreningen) from 2002 to 2017. During those 15 years, he executed an impressive transformation of the company – in terms of size, profitability, and strategic direction. Under his leadership, ÅF’s revenue grew from around SEK 2 billion to over SEK 10 billion. This was achieved through a combination of organic and acquired growth. The share price rose from under SEK 12 to around SEK 200, corresponding to an average annual return of 20.6% (excluding dividends).
Ratos Under Jonas Wiström – From Crisis to Cash Flow Machine
Strategy and Direction
When Jonas Wiström took over as CEO in 2017, Ratos was a highly leveraged and fragmented company. The focus shifted to improved profitability, annual EBITA growth, and a leverage ratio below 2.5x EBITDA. Through cost savings, a new leadership culture, and restructuring, debt levels were significantly reduced, which enabled new acquisitions starting in 2021.
Streamlining and Portfolio
Shifts Ratos has gradually transformed towards three core areas: industry, technical solutions, and infrastructure services. Weak holdings such as Jøtul and Gudrun Sjödén were divested early. New acquisitions – such as Semcon, Knightec, and Expin – have complemented the portfolio. The merger of Semcon and Knightec into Knightec Group, and the spin-off of Aleido, demonstrate the strategy: fewer, larger, and more focused companies. The sale of Airteam in 2025 is a first step in the declared streamlining process.
Handling of Problematic Holdings
Plantasjen has undergone tough efficiency measures and a restructuring in 2024. The store network has been downsized and the focus is now on restoring profitability. Expin, acquired in 2022, turned out to have serious accounting irregularities. Ratos increased its ownership to 94%, filed a police report against the former management, and restructured the company to focus on profitable railway electrification. Diab has been repositioned after weak demand in the wind power segment. In general, Ratos under Wiström has shown a willingness to both divest weak companies and invest in core assets with turnaround potential.
Financial Performance
Under Wiström, EBITA has increased from around SEK 425 million (2018) to SEK 2,329 million (2024), a fivefold increase. The adjusted EBITA margin for 2024 amounted to 8%.
Free cash flow in 2024 reached SEK 2.1 billion (around 90% conversion), with a sustainable long-term level of approximately 70%.
Net debt/EBITDA has dropped from 3.4x to 1.2x, and dividends have been able to increase.
Organic growth in 2024 was weak (-5%) due to Plantasjen, but several portfolio companies are growing.
Ratos Today: Fragmented at First Glance
Ratos consists of three business areas: Industry, Construction & Service, and Consumer, of which the first two represent the core operations and currently generate all profits.

Revenue Distribution – Mixed but Concentrated
Revenue is unevenly distributed, with Sentia accounting for about one-third of the group’s total revenue, followed by Plantasjen, Knightec, Presis Infra, HL Display, and Aibel, each contributing approximately 10%. In addition to these, there are several smaller companies contributing less, which adds to the group’s fragmented appearance. However, this also means that the majority of the company’s revenue is anchored in a few relatively stable businesses
Decent Profitability and Strong Cash Flows from a Stable Core Portfolio
In 2024, the Ratos Group reported total revenue of SEK 32 billion with an EBITA margin of 8%. Five of the group’s holdings – Sentia, Presis Infra, Aibel, HL Display, and Knightec – together account for a full 80% of the group’s EBITA.
The EBITA level for 2024 should be considered depressed due to write-downs in Plantasjen and Expin totaling over SEK 800 million. At the same time, the restructuring efforts carried out – primarily in Plantasjen – point toward a more profitable core going forward.
Seemingly High Quality in the Most Important Subsidiaries
Sentia and Presis Infra account for a significant portion of Ratos’ profits. Based on available data, the quality of these companies appears to be high, as outlined below.
HENT (85% of Sentia)
Construction company based in Norway. Example projects include:
Norway’s largest university building: the Life Sciences Building
Two blocks of the new government quarter in Oslo
Sections of the Fornebu Line
The Norwegian Ocean Technology Center
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Hospital projects – six currently ongoing Aker’s new headquarters, which will also be the largest office building in Norway
According to Ratos, Sentia as a whole should be able to maintain an EBITA margin around or slightly above 5%. The company has fully exited residential development and is now focused on public-sector buildings, which contributes to stability in demand. Our impression is also that the company applies conservative revenue recognition, reducing the risk of unexpected negative surprises.
Presis Infra Presis Infra is a Norwegian corporate group based in Bergen, specializing in infrastructure maintenance, with a leading position in its industry in Norway. The company also operates in the maintenance of ferry terminals and rockfall protection. Presis is known for its lean organization, decentralized business model, and is unique in its sector for achieving leading margins. Since Ratos acquired its stake, the company has grown organically by over 20% annually on average. Profitability has also been strong, with a consistently high EBITA margin above 13% and historical cash conversion of 90% of EBITA.
Strong Balance Sheet and Solid Cash Conversion
Cash conversion was strong in 2023 and 2024, ranging between 90% and 130% of EBITA – driven by improved working capital. Over the longer term, a more normalized conversion range around 65–70% is expected. The weaker levels in 2021–2022 (4% and 35%) were largely due to high CAPEX and inventory buildup. Since 2023, investments have decreased to healthier levels, around SEK 200 million per year. We view this as a normalized level. The company has also strengthened its balance sheet. After the sale of Airteam in March 2025, net debt stands at around 0.5x EBITDA – a low level that provides flexibility for future investments or opportunities.
Ongoing Internal Streamlining and Structural Changes
Beneath the surface, Ratos today operates as a relatively well-functioning company, although the portfolio still appears somewhat fragmented. However, streamlining is steadily progressing:
Airteam was sold in March 2025
Aibel, which contributes just under SEK 450 million in EBITA, is the only holding with minority ownership (49%) and is expected to be listed once the IPO market improves. The company also had a net cash position of NOK 1.9 billion at year-end. If Aibel were sold or listed at 7x EBITA (excluding cash), Ratos’s share would be worth approximately SEK 4 billion – compared to the current enterprise value of around SEK 11 billion. This would significantly unlock hidden value in Ratos.
Plantasjen has undergone an extensive restructuring – 36 of 125 stores have been closed and lease agreements renegotiated. The remaining business is expected to become more profitable and then positioned for divestment. In a conservative scenario, the business could generate over SEK 3 billion in revenue and EBITA of SEK 150–200 million. Ideally, this unit could be sold for over SEK 1 billion within a year.
Expin Group has also been restructured, with four subsidiaries shut down. The remaining business is expected to generate around SEK 700 million in revenue and return to profitability, making it an insignificant part of Ratos going forward. The remaining unit is focused on electric infrastructure, including maintenance of railways, trams, and metro systems.
Once the dust settles, the remaining structure is expected to mainly consist of the Construction & Services segment (led by Sentia and Presis Infra) and Industry – the latter still relatively diversified but stable.
Construction and Infrastructure as the Core of Future Streamlining
The construction sector is particularly important to the group. Sentia and Presis Infra together account for around SEK 1 billion in EBITA.
Sentia focuses on critical public construction in the Nordics – including schools, hospitals, and police stations
Presis Infra specializes in the maintenance and development of railways, roads, and energy – part of the growing field of Critical Infrastructure
Construction and Infrastructure as the Core of Future Streamlining
At a share price of around SEK 32, Ratos is trading at approximately 7.5x free cash flow, providing a solid valuation floor. If the company succeeds in demonstrating that Plantasjen and Expin are sustainably profitable post-restructuring, a multiple of 10–12x FCF would be fully reasonable – implying significant revaluation potential.
Summary: Solid Foundation, Undervalued Upside
Ratos offers a combination of improved profitability, strong cash generation, low leverage, and ongoing portfolio streamlining. A few high-quality holdings drive the majority of value creation. Once the effects of the restructurings in Plantasjen and Expin start to materialize in the financials, there is good reason to believe in a valuation uplift from today’s level of around 7.5x free cash flow.
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Carasent: Plenty of Potential
Strong Report with Focus on Growth and Profitability
Carasent delivered yet another stable report with no major surprises – but with continued strong development. Revenue grew by 29%, of which 15% was organic growth. Profitability also improved markedly: the EBITDAC margin rose to 6%, a dramatic improvement compared to levels around -30% just a few years ago.
AI Offering with Major Upselling Potential
A particularly interesting initiative is Carasent’s AI-based medical documentation tool, which can automatically generate clinical notes. The price point for customers is similar to a Webdoc license – but with a lower gross margin of around 65–75%, compared to 85% for other products. Still, it represents a clear "no-brainer" for many clients.
The company estimates that 20,000 physicians, all current Webdoc users, currently do their own documentation – making them potential users of this new service. The CEO mentioned a price of approximately SEK 800/month per physician, implying a total addressable market (TAM) just under SEK 200 million per year. We estimate the upselling potential at roughly +50% from today’s average revenue per user, and expect the product to reach high adoption over time – particularly because it can free up significant resources in primary care.
Regardless of the eventual outcome, we believe the potential is far from priced in to Carasent’s current valuation.
Positive Signs from VGR: New Customers Expected
The situation in VGR (Västra Götalandsregionen) also appears very promising. This business line accounts for roughly 10% of revenues and was at risk due to the planned switch to the Millennium journal system. However, that rollout has collapsed, and implementation across regional hospitals is now on indefinite pause.
Carasent mentioned during the Q1 call that it expects to onboard new customers in VGR shortly. In short, primary care centers in the region seem confident that the Millennium migration won’t happen and are already beginning to adopt Carasent’s Webdoc system, even before an official decision is made.
Back-of-the-Envelope Math Suggests Undervalued Stock
A back-of-the-envelope calculation using the incremental EBITDAC margin points to potential EBITDAC of around SEK 200 million by 2027. While this is not our base case, it illustrates significant upside in the stock. We believe a multiple of ~25x EBITDAC would be reasonable.
Carasent currently represents 3.5% of Quality Focus.
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Nilörn – Strong Growth and Solid Underlying Profitability
Nilörn delivered a solid first quarter with a 7% increase in revenue and a 15% increase in order intake. The Outdoor segment stood out with continued strong order growth. This positive momentum is driven by broad-based demand rather than any single customer, which provides a stable outlook going forward.
Currency Headwinds Distort Reported Profitability
Currency effects negatively impacted results by SEK 3 million at the EBIT level and an additional SEK 1 million in net financials. Adjusted for this, the underlying EBIT margin lands at 10% (compared to 8.9% reported), and net profit is roughly SEK 4 million stronger than the headline figures suggest.
Vietnam Facility Operational – Growth and Margin Levers Ahead
The Vietnam factory is now up and running, currently operating at partial capacity. Local presence has already led to a new customer win, and is seen as a positive step for the Outdoor segment, even though the company still prefers Hong Kong for production. Going forward, increased volume from Vietnam and investments in packaging products are expected to boost profitability, while some cost reductions are planned in Hong Kong.
Digital Offering (Nilörn CONNECT) Gaining Traction
Nilörn CONNECT continues to attract interest and serves as a clear door-opener in client discussions. While macro uncertainty remains present on the customer side, it has not yet had a tangible impact on order intake.
Summary
All in all, this was a strong report with solid growth, stable underlying profitability, and strategic investments that are likely to pay off over time. At a share price of SEK 58 (P/E 8.5), the stock still appears undervalued.
Nilörn currently represents 1.6% of Quality Focus.
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FlatexDegiro: Strong Report and Positive Signals – Multibagger Potential
The company delivered a Q1 result well above analysts’ expectations, with revenue up 19%, mainly driven by a 31% increase in brokerage fees due to high market activity in a volatile trading environment. Interest income decreased only slightly (-1%) and was stronger than expected, supported by increased customer deposits and a higher number of securities lending transactions.
Net profit rose by 40% year-over-year, reflecting the company’s scalable business model, where costs remain largely stable despite revenue growth. At the same time, the company reported a record-high influx of new customers, further strengthening the growth outlook.
The CEO mentioned that trading activity following Trump’s tariff announcement in early April was so intense that several competitors’ platforms went down. However, Flatex/DEGIRO’s systems remained fully operational, which the company claims resulted in a sharp inflow of new customers frustrated by poor accessibility at their previous brokers. Customer growth has reportedly been exceptionally strong since the beginning of April.
In Q2, cryptocurrency trading will also be launched for two-thirds of the customer base, which could become a significant growth engine going forward.
The guidance for full-year 2025 remains unchanged (revenues ±5%, earnings -5% to +10%), but we view it as conservative. Q2 is likely to benefit from continued strength in the brokerage business – first from panic-driven selling during the April downturn, followed by FOMO-driven buying during the recovery. Interest income was also stronger than feared, which eases the biggest risk factor in estimates. Panic selling during the downturn likely increased the amount of idle cash on accounts, positively contributing to interest income until it is reinvested in equities.
Our conclusion: one or more forecast upgrades are likely during the year. The report reinforces the view of a quality company with strong tailwinds – and even though the stock has already performed well this year, we see multibagger potential over the coming years.
FlatexDegiro accounts for 2.6% of Quality Focus.
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Protector Forsikring: Consistent Strength
Protector Forsikring reported a profit of NOK 740 million (456) for Q1 2025 (EPS of NOK 9 vs NOK 5.5 last year), driven by a strong insurance result and solid investment returns. The insurance result came in at NOK 458 million (240), corresponding to a combined ratio of 85.9% (91.2%).
Strong growth driven by France and Norway
Gross written premiums amounted to NOK 5,271 million, an increase of 19% (17% in local currencies). All segments contributed to the growth, with France and Norway being the largest contributors. The first quarter is the peak quarter for premium income in Scandinavia and France. The company has experienced a continued high renewal rate, indicating strong customer satisfaction and loyalty. In January, the company achieved 19% growth in local currencies, supported by price increases that offset claims inflation. France alone contributed 8 percentage points of the growth.
Strong profitability in the insurance segment
The loss ratio (claims as a percentage of premiums) net of reinsurance was 75.4% (80.6%). Large claims amounted to NOK 101 million, or 3.1% (6.6%). The expense ratio came in at 10.5% (10.6%), and excluding commissions, the ratio was 6.2% (6.3%).
Strong investment result
Net return from assets under management was NOK 577 million (350), or 2.3% (1.7%). Total investment return (including financial costs from insurance operations) was NOK 536 million (372), a very solid performance in a challenging macro environment.
Strong balance sheet and special dividend
At the end of Q1, the SCR ratio (Solvency Capital Requirement) stood at 222% (196%) after dividends. This reflects a strong financial position that supports continued growth and also enabled a special dividend of NOK 3 per share. We will return with a longer review and analysis of Protector Forsikring in an upcoming monthly letter.
Protector currently accounts for 3.1% of Quality Focus.
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Swedencare: Weak Q1, but Brighter Outlook Ahead
Swedencare delivered a first quarter with somewhat modest organic growth of 5%. NaturVet had a slow start to the year in January and February but finished strong with a record month in March. The Dental category continues to impress, growing by 51% year-over-year and now accounting for 21% of total revenue (up from 15%).
The company reiterates its full-year guidance of over 10% organic growth, and the outlook for the rest of the year is described as positive. An important trigger going forward is the launch of the Walmart partnership in physical stores during Q2. Additionally, already-signed contract manufacturing agreements are expected to ramp up in 2025–2026.
Profitability was somewhat pressured during the quarter, with an EBITA margin of 16.1% (compared to 20% last year). Swedencare invested heavily during the quarter in trade shows and a rebranding of NaturVet, which increased the cost base. The company also continued to invest in the organization to ensure sufficient capacity to handle expected growth going forward. At the same time, interest expenses fell significantly, down to SEK 12 million from SEK 20 million, providing some relief to the bottom line.
All in all, the report was on the weaker side, though in line with expectations following the Q4 report. The focus now is on accelerating growth over the coming quarters, along with a gradual improvement in profitability.
We will return with a more in-depth review of the Swedencare case in a monthly letter in the coming months.
Swedencare currently represents 2.6% of Kavaljer Quality Focus.
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Valmet: Strong Q1 and Still Undervalued
Valmet’s net sales were flat in Q1 2025, with an organic decline of 6% in local currencies. Order intake increased by 27%, of which 23% was organic. The comparable EBITA margin remained stable at 10.2% (compared to 10.0% last year).
Segments
The Services segment performed strongly with a margin of 17.6% (14.6%). This strong performance was driven by higher net sales. The continued momentum in Services indicates that underlying demand for maintenance and support remains robust.
The Automation segment posted a margin of 16.2% (16.5%). This segment benefited from a positive contribution from an acquisition.
The Process Technologies segment saw its margin fall to 1.5% (from 4.2%). The decline was mainly due to lower net sales. While the segment is facing more challenging market conditions, the company expects customer activity to remain stable going forward.
Outlook
Valmet reiterated its previous guidance from February 13, 2025, stating that it expects net sales for the full year 2025 to remain at the same level as in 2024 (€5,359 million), and that comparable EBITA for 2025 will also be in line with 2024 (€609 million).
Even after a strong rally following the report, the stock still trades at a low valuation:
Valmet currently accounts for 4.6% of Kavaljer Quality Focus.
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Alligo: Challenging Market Conditions Persist, but a Cheap Stock for Long-Term Investors
Alligo reported a total sales increase of 2.9% in Q1 2025, but organic growth was negative at -2.5%, while acquired growth contributed 7.8%. The adjusted EBITA margin declined to 3.3% (from 3.9%).
The negative organic growth was primarily driven by a continued weak economic climate, which impacted sales. In addition, one fewer trading day and currency effects also had a negative impact on performance.
Geographically, Sweden showed the weakest organic sales development, while Norway benefited from the oil and gas market. Finland improved compared to a weak Q1 in 2024, but especially the Tools division continued to show weak profitability.
The decline in earnings is mainly due to weaker demand in the integrated Swedol and Tools operations, as well as margin pressure in Norway. Acquired units and cost adjustments helped soften the impact.
An efficiency program was launched in Finland during Q4, and three stores were closed during the quarter. A broader review of the Finnish business is ongoing. Additional cost-cutting measures were implemented during Q1, expected to save over SEK 100 million, with a gradual effect from mid-2025. These measures include reorganizing central functions and consolidating stores.
The weak economy is expected to continue affecting the market in the short term, but the company is seeing more positive signals that point to an eventual improvement, even though these have not yet translated into stronger sales.
Outlook
Alligo does not issue formal guidance but maintains long-term financial targets, including an average adjusted EBITA margin above 10% over a business cycle.
The company maintains a stance of cautious optimism for 2025, focusing on sales initiatives aimed at both new and existing customers. Should the economic cycle improve, we believe Alligo could approach its stated 10% EBITA ambition. Analysts currently estimate that the company is trading at P/E 8.4 on 2026 earnings, which we view as far too cheap for a quality business like Alligo. We’re therefore staying the course and awaiting better times. Alligo currently represents 1.8% of Kavaljer Quality Focus.
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AFRY: Weak Profitability but Action Underway
Although revenue came in line with market expectations, AFRY delivered weak profitability. The EBITA margin fell to 7.3% (compared to 8.6% last year). Organic sales declined by 0.9% (calendar-adjusted). The Infrastructure segment performed slightly better than expected, while Process, IDS, and Management Consulting underperformed relative to forecasts.
Reported EBITA came in at SEK 459 million, impacted by a SEK 30 million severance payment to the outgoing CEO.
Order Book and Financial Position
The order backlog remained stable at SEK 20.2 billion (in line with the previous year). Leverage stands at 2.3x EBITDA, below the company’s target of 2.5x. Cash flow from operating activities was SEK 117 million, and the utilization rate declined slightly to 71.1% (from 72.6% last year).
New Organizational Structure and Management Changes
AFRY announced a new structure with three divisions to be implemented starting July 1, 2025:
Energy
Industry
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Transportation & Places
The goal is to address the cost base and improve profitability over time by increasing customer focus.
Summary
AFRY continues to struggle with weak profitability and uneven demand across segments, but is now taking steps toward a simpler, more customer-oriented structure to drive improved earnings over time. The stock is trading at P/E 14 based on this year’s estimates and P/E 11 for 2026. We still believe the company has high underlying quality and that both earnings and valuation multiples should rise over time. AFRY currently represents 2.9% of Kavaljer Quality Focus.
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Kavaljer Quality Focus - Performance/Index |
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Fund Information
Fund Type: SICAV (UCITS)
Name: LMM - Kavaljer Quality Focus
Custodian: CACEIS Investor Services Bank S.A.
Auditor: PricewaterhouseCoopers Société cooperative
Management Fee: 1,25% per year
Minimum Investment, SEK: 100
Subscription: Daily
ISIN: LU1232457504
Risk Level: 5 out of 7
Category: Equities, Sweden, small- and midcap
AUM: 711 mkr SEK
Morningstar Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
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Nacka Strand, May 5, 2025
Peter Lindvall, Håkan Telander & Jesper von Koch |
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